Nadal leaves top 3 favorites to win in Australia for the first time in 10 years

The one from Manacor starts as 4th favorite according to Betfair's forecasts, which give Djokovic as the favorite in the men's category and Osaka in the women's category.


Rafael Nadal will debut next week at the 2021 Australian Open against Serbian Laslo Djere in a difficult start within a difficult draw. It will also be a historic premiere for the Spanish, although not in the best sense of the word. For the first time in the last decade, the one from Manacor starts this first Grand Slam of the year off the podium of favorites according to the forecasts. Nadal starts as fourth candidate.

Ahead of the Spaniard in Betfair's forecasts is Djokovic, aspiring to win his ninth tournament in Melbourne, third in a row after the victories in 2019 and 2020. The Serbian's share is 2.4, which indicates that he is very favorite.

Behind the tennis player from Belgrade, Daniil Medvedev with a fee of € 5 per euro wagered and Dominic Thiem, last year's finalist, with a 6.0 fee. Nadal emerges in fourth position, with a share of 6.5, far, far from the options given to Djokovic and for the first time in the decade outside the top candidates.

Nadal, a regular in the pools since 2010

In Betfair forecasts, Nadal had always been in at least the top three favorites since 2010. Most of the time in the shadow of Djokovic (favorite in the last eight editions) and a Federer who always emerged as the second candidate until between 2017 and 2020 Nadal took away that privilege.

Yes, a year ago Nadal started the tournament in the second echelon of Betfair favorites with Medvedev replacing the injured Federer as third option. Now the dethroned is Nadal, although there is still room for Spanish hope.

The case of 2009 ... and the illusion of Djokovic

Nadal has only won in Australia once. It happened in 2009 and then the Spanish started the tournament with a quota similar to the current one, of € 5 per euro wagered.

But it is that among the reasons for the hope of the Spanish is also his greatest rival. The first time that Djokovic was crowned in Melbourne, in 2008, he did so by starting the tournament far from the top of the favorites and with the same odds (6.5) that Nadal now has. There is room for grinding.

Garbiñe, with better options than a year ago

Among women, forecasts are more complicated due to the volatility of a circuit in which there are many favorites, but none with the emphaticness that usually happens in the men's box. The Spanish Garbiñe Muguruza, a finalist last year, will aspire to add her third Grand Slam with a poor starting quota. It is paid at € 13 per euro bet that the title expires.

But it is, nevertheless, a much better odds than the one he had last year, when he played the tournament until the very final. So he started with a 25.0 odds. Even the winner of that edition, Sofia Kenin, won after starting with worse numbers than Muguruza now has. So the quota of the American was 15.0. In this 2021 edition, the number 1 favorite is the Japanese Naomi Osaka, with a share of 6.5.

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