CIES has no doubts that Atlético will be champion

The football observatory has developed a statistical projection on who will finish champion in the European leagues. In France there will be a surprise and in Italy it will not be Juve.


The European leagues have started the second part of the season. The fight for the title is open in many of the championships and the CIES, the football observatory, has made its statistical projection on how each one will end at the end of the year. The analysis has been constructed using a statistical model, taking into account the attempted and conceded shots on goal, the possession of the ball, as well as the passes of the teams themselves and those of the opponents in the last third of the field.

In the case of Spain, CIES observes an Atlético champion at the end of the season, with 81 points, but with only three final advantage over Barcelona. Third would be Real Madrid with 74 points at the end of the League. The last place in the Champions League, according to CIES, will be for Sevilla, with 67 points, three more than Real Sociedad. In Italy, Inter just took the lead before playing the derby against Milan. And CIES sees Conte champions at the end of the season by a small advantage of two points over Milan. Juventus, according to this projection, would finish third, three points behind the champion. Napoli would finish fourth, gaining two places from the current standings.

The Bundesliga, according to CIES, would end up with the same leader it has now. Bayern would win the title again with a six-point advantage over Leipzig. The surprise would come from Leverkusen, who would move up two positions to get third, with the same points as Wolfsburg, who would be fourth. This would give Haaland's Dortmund out of the Champions League in fifth position. In France there would be a notable change from what the classification now dictates. According to CIES, the champion will be Lyon, with 82 points, one more than PSG. Third would finish Lille, who now commands the championship. Monaco would remain in fourth place.

The City has given a coup in the Premier and the situation will not change, according to the statistical projection. Guardiola's team will win the title with 86 points, 14 more than Manchester United. The third position would be for Liverpool with 69 points, one more than Chelsea, which would reach the Champions League position. Everton (8th), Tottenham (9th) and Arsenal (11th) would not finish in positions of honor.

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